Liquidity & Technicals
1. Portfolio Implementation Verdict
Daqo is institutionally tradable at size-aware mid-cap scale only. Five trading days at 20% ADV clears ~$11–14M, enough for a 5% position weight in a ~$228–286M fund but not for large-AUM core sizing. The tape is bearish: price is 27% below the 200-day average, a death cross printed on March 16, 2026, and YTD performance is approximately −36%.
5-day capacity at 20% ADV ($M)
Largest 5-day position (% mcap)
Supported AUM, 5% pos ($M)
ADV 20d / market cap
Tech score (−6 to +6)
Liquidity is fine for size-aware funds; the tape is the problem. A mid-cap fund can implement a position; a large-cap fund cannot run this at meaningful weight. The technical scorecard is net −4 of a possible +/−6 — wait for momentum to base before initiating.
2. Price Snapshot
Last close ($)
YTD return
1-year return
52w range position
Beta (5Y monthly)
The 27% range position means the stock sits in the bottom quartile of its 52-week band. The 1-year print is positive only because the comparison anchors against the spring-2025 trough; on every other window — 6-month, 3-year, 5-year — performance is sharply negative.
3. Price Tape: 10-Year History with 50/200-Day SMAs
Price is below the 200-day SMA by ~27% — a clean downtrend, not a sideways regime. The chart shows the 2021 bubble peak near $124, the 2022-2023 collapse, a failed 2024 rally that died at $52, and a rolling-over 2026. The August 2025 golden cross lasted seven months before reversing into the March 16, 2026 death cross. Trend-following systems are now positioned short.
Most recent cross: Death cross on 2026-03-16 (50-day below 200-day SMA). The full-history tape is a downtrend inside a long post-2021 de-rating, not a sideways base.
4. Three-Year Rebased Performance
The company has lost 55% of its value over three years. The early-2024 rally to ~130 and late-2024 spike toward ~145 (on the rebased scale) both failed and gave back more than they made. Read without a benchmark overlay, the stock has bled relative to almost any plausible comparison.
5. Momentum: RSI(14) and MACD
RSI = 36 — weak but not yet oversold (30). The reading dropped from mid-50s in mid-April to 36 on the latest gap-down, a momentum break, not capitulation. MACD histogram has just turned negative again after a brief positive stint; the line is below the signal. Near-term the path of least resistance is lower until either RSI undercuts 30 with a positive divergence or the MACD histogram bases above zero.
6. Volume, Volatility, and Sponsorship
The three largest non-2018 volume bursts of the last decade all cluster around late October 2024 — a back-to-back +14% rip then -23% retrace on ~8x and 6x average volume. That is the signature of a heavy news-driven rotation (Q3 results plus SAMR anti-monopoly / US-China policy headlines), not sustained buying.
Realized Volatility Regime
Realized 30-day volatility sits at 68–72% — above the historical median of ~65%, below the p80 stress band at 84%. The late-October 2024 episode was the standout, with 30-day vol exceeding 130%, well above any other reading in the 5-year history. The market is demanding a normal-to-elevated risk premium but is not in panic. Position sizing should haircut accordingly: a 5% target weight in a 25-vol portfolio behaves like ~14% portfolio risk on this name.
7. Institutional Liquidity
A. ADV and Turnover
ADV 20d (K shares)
ADV 20d value ($M)
ADV 60d (K shares)
ADV 20d / mcap
Annual turnover (%)
Annual turnover of ~368% means the share count cycles roughly four times per year — active retail and trading-desk participation at the small-ticket level, but a constrained institutional float.
B. Fund-Capacity Table
C. Liquidation Runway
Trading friction. Median daily range over 60 sessions is 1.62% — not an elevated impact-cost flag by itself. The capacity issue is dollars of ADV, not intraday spread width. A 0.5% issuer-level position clears in a week at 20% participation; 1% takes a week and a half; 2% is a multi-week build or exit.
8. Technical Scorecard
Net score: −4 of +/−6. Stance: bearish on a 3-to-6-month horizon. Four of six dimensions score -1, two are neutral, none is positive.
The bull trigger is a reclaim of the $26.00 200-day SMA with the 50-day reversing back above the 200-day (a fresh golden cross would invert the March death cross). The bear confirmation is a break of the $12.74 52-week low, which would open the chart to the $9-10 range with no near-term support. Until one of those levels is tagged, the working assumption is continued grind lower with vol-of-vol on every solar-policy headline.